UK homes are bracing for significant Energy prices rise This summer analysts at Cornwall Insight predicted that the energy price cap for July-September 2026 could reach around £1,973, the highest level in recent years outside the worst of the previous energy crisis.
That would represent a jump of more than £330 compared to the current cap of £1,641 for April-June, which itself reflects a recent drop in prices.
The projected jump is linked to volatility in global gas and oil markets following the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.
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Experts predict a ‘significantly higher price cap’
Analysts at independent energy consultancy Cornwall Insight calculated their latest forecast using wholesale market price data up to 19 March 2026, estimating a default tariff cap – an annual cap for a typical household using 11,500 kWh gas and £1275 kWh for electricity at 2,700 kWh. July-September 2026.
“Our model shows the potential for a significantly higher price cap if current market trends continue,” Cornwall Insight said in its latest commentary.
Although this figure is based on forward wholesale prices rather than final regulatory data, it shows how global pressures are affecting domestic energy costs.
How big will this increase be?
Current Energy price cap The £1,641 set by Ofgem for the period 1 April to 30 June 2026 is paid by direct debit for a typical dual-fuel household – down from £1,758 in the January-March 2026 quarter.
The average cost is:
- Electricity: £882
- Gas: £759
The July forecast of £1,972.53 represents an overall increase of £331:
- Increases electricity by £72.46 to £954.46
- The gas rises by £259.07 to £1,018.07
If Cornwall Insight’s July forecast is anything to go by, the new cap will be £331 more per year than the current level, meaning households on standard variable tariffs could see their bills rise sharply.
Where will this price increase be placed historically?
While the projected July cap would be the highest in recent years, it remains below the record peak reached during the 2022-23 energy crisis, when a shock to global gas prices following the Russia-Ukraine conflict saw the typical annual cap reach around £3,500–£4,000.
Analysts note that the July 2026 forecast reflects a return to higher costs driven by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East rather than an overarching energy crisis.
“Although this is not the exact peak we have seen historically, a cap approaching £2,000 still represents a significant burden for many families,” adds Cornwall Insight.
It will be important to observe how global wholesale energy prices develop before May, as Ofgem finalizes the official July-September price cap based on data from the previous three months.
